MCM Update: 5 weeks and counting...

The original plan was to take a day of rest after yesterday's 10K, but my legs wanted to run.  Maybe it was because yesterday's race wasn't even a full 10K or because I carb-loaded like a boss on account of my birthday.  Or maybe it was that after months of running in the Texas heat, today's forecast was just too good to pass up:

My goal was 24 miles, running 2 miles at a time with 30-second walk breaks, just as I had done a month ago.  I wasn't sure exactly what to expect but was pretty pleased with the result:

I learned a lot from this run that will help me when I step to the line 5 weeks from today for my first marathon:

- I can go the distance.  Add walking to warmup and cool down, and I covered 26.2 today.

- I can drink lemon/lime Gatorade with peanut butter GU and Nutter Butters.  I was a little worried about mixing a citrus-flavored beverage with the sweet taste of PB, but it was fine.  No need to carry my own electrolytes on race day.  Hooray!

- I can go over four hours without a bathroom break.  No time for a pit stop on race day!

- I still had something in the tank at the end of 24 miles.  My last full mile was 9:12, and I picked it up to 8:30 for the last .7. 

- I can go faster than I could a month ago.  Granted, I was pushing a little harder today and it was about 8 degrees cooler than the last time I tried this, but I dropped my pace 47 seconds, even going 2 extra miles.  Put another way, I ran 24 miles today, and it only took me 2 minutes more than it had to run 22.  It's even more of a confidence booster when I factor in that last time I made 4 stops to refill bottles and potty (i.e., extra recovery time).  Today, I only stopped once to refill.  If you look at total time elapsed (including when my Garmin was paused for taking care of the necessities), the 22 I ran 5 weeks ago actually took me over 10 minutes longer than 24 today! 

I still have a ways to go to get to the magic 9:09 if I'm going to run a sub-4 marathon.  To be exact, I need to drop another 24 seconds off my pace in 5 weeks.  But that's only HALF of what I dropped off my pace in the last 5 weeks, and I have several things working in my favor to help me get there:

- Five more weeks of training which should include a 4-hour run, a 26.2K simulator, 5 more speed workouts, several tempo runs, and a few easy miles on both roads and trails. 

- Even cooler temperatures.  It was 54 when I started today but 77 by the time I finished.  Over the past 10 years, there have only been 2 years where MCM started at 60 degrees and highs reached into the 70's.  Typically, the average temperature is another 10 degrees cooler (which supposedly equates to a 3% difference in performance).  I really felt the effect of the heat in the latter part of my run and look forward to seeing how I do when this is not a factor.

- A flatter course...I think.  There are a few hills on the new course, but I think the total elevation gain will be less than what I did today.

- Less to carry.  I will probably still wear my belt with my cell phone, fuel, and 10 oz. of water, but bringing just one bottle instead of three will save me nearly a pound and a half.  On a related note, being able to throw GU wrappers away instead of having to put them in a Ziploc bag will save time.  Seems like a small thing, but it's hard to maintain speed while doing that with a sticky mess on your hands!

- Fresh legs.  I have done a quasi-taper over the last couple of weeks due to babying my calf, but I'll have a proper 3-week taper leading into MCM and unlike today, won't have raced the day before.
  
- Race day adrenaline and emotion.  Being a part of such an amazing event with what I hear is an electric atmosphere (and hopefully some hotties I can pace off of!).  Dedicating each mile to someone I know and wanting to do them proud.  Knowing my folks will be waiting for me at the finish line and that when I cross it, I will finally be able to call myself a marathoner.

Hopefully, all these together will help me overcome the challenges of running with 30,000 other people and whatever weather conditions present that day (DC can be windy in October, and although it doesn't usually rain, I've run my share of races when it did). 

But even if not, I am determined to run happy and enjoy the experience.  I'm learning that I enjoy the challenge of training hard and setting goals to work toward.  But I'm also learning that running happy is the most important thing.  If I keep doing that, sooner or later, speed will come. 

5 weeks and counting...

Tour des Fleurs "Not Quite 10K" - Race Recap

If you just look at my PR's, you'll see something quite unexpected: my pace for the half marathon distance is faster than for the 10K.  It's not that I can't run faster if I only have to go half the distance; it's just that I rarely stop at 6.2.

I was really looking forward to this year's Tour des Fleurs as a chance to change that.  Last year, my time was 1:04:10, and even though I'd gotten under an hour and set a PR on a training run in March (59:20/9:34), I knew that I was capable of running much faster now, as evidenced by the fact that I held a 9-minute pace for my last 13.1.

Everything was shaping up perfectly.  For the first time in so long I can't remember, the temperature this morning was a cool 62 degrees.  I had my new racing flats, the Saucony Type A5s, which I've quickly grown to love.

My brother had driven down from OKC last night, drove me to the race, and dropped me off while he parked.  I arrived early so I had plenty of time to relax and mentally prepare.

Based on previous data, I was shooting for 8:45 for the first mile and hoping I could average 8:30 for the race, but I did not program my Garmin for a specific pace or heart rate.  I had learned my lesson about that and wanted to have the flexibility to listen to my body and adjust on the fly without my watch beeping and driving me bonkers.  Basically, my race plan was: Run smart.  Run fast.  Run happy. 

I started my warmup around the Arboretum, enjoying the scenery.

I looked out on White Rock Lake, where my last 2 races have also been, and got ready to run what I think has become my favorite stretch, making my way to the start line.

I found a place relatively near the front of the pack and did a good job of pacing myself out of the gate.

Mile 1: 8:41.  Right on target.  Awesome.

Mile 2: 8:20.  Not bad at all.  I was feeling good, with no calf pain that had concerned me a week or two ago.  All that resting (and ice, compression, and massage) worked!

Mile 3: 8:25.  Okay, gave a few seconds back on the hill, yet still under my targeted average pace....But wait, why does that sign say it's Mile 4?  Maybe that was signage for the 20K???

Mile 4: 8:05.  Awesome.  More than halfway, and I feel great.  HR is in the yellow zone (170s), which is comfortably hard.  I know I have a little bit more to give, but I'm saving it for the last mile...surely there's 2 to go, right?  This course was accurately marked last year.  Is it possible we could all be short a WHOLE MILE?  Surely not, but maybe...Still better to save something assuming I need to go the full distance.  Please don't let this course be short.  I really wanted a PR and some good data today.  (Did I really just pray that the course would not be short?)

Mile 5: 8:06.  Holding steady and ready to unleash the beast...but wait, is that really the finish line over there???  Aw, man....Might as well pick it up, I guess...

Mile 5.16:

Finished running 7:29 pace.  Based on the way I felt, I'm guessing I could've put up a sub-8 for the last mile and finished somewhere around 51 minutes, but we'll never know.

What we do know is that even with me purposely holding back for the last mile I never got to run, my average pace for this "mini" 10K was 8:18--about 2 minutes per mile faster than last year!  That is a win.

As for who won the actual race, we still don't know.  Apparently the motorcycle cop took a wrong turn, cutting the course a mile short (after arguing the point with the lead runner!).  Some runners familiar with the course stayed true to the route and went the full 6.2, but the majority of us were lemmings who ran just over 5 miles.  We waited around as it was taking forever for the race directors to sort things out, as there was prize money on the line for top finishers.

I'm grateful that my family was there to enjoy what is still the best post-race party around.  Not being much of a drinker, the beer garden was lost on me, but I managed to find all the sweets a girl could eat--and let the red velvet cupcake count as my birthday cake as my family sang to me.  :)

We also enjoyed the live music as we waited for results to be posted....only to find out that things were so jacked up, they won't announce results 'til MONDAY!

I hate, hate, hate that I did not get an apples to apples comparison on my progress from my first anniversary race, or a true 10K PR, or a 10K time off which to predict my marathon time (though the Jack Daniels calculator puts me at 3:59:01 based on the data I have!).  Yet I love, love, love that I ran smart, fast, and happy and crossed the finish line running faster and feeling better than in any race to date. 

The next time I pin on a bib, it will be for the Marine Corps Marathon.  

The Big O

Overtraining.  To anyone who looked at my training schedule, it's no surprise that this topic would come up sooner or later.  In a weird way, I take it as a good sign that it finally did because otherwise I might have questioned whether I was pushing myself to the limit.  But the goal is to the limit, not over the limit, and I'm seeing the signs that it's time to take a step back.

One of the first signs was on Labor Day.  The Saturday before I gave myself a do-over of a workout with 13.1 worth of mile repeats.  Given that by the time I got back to my car, I'd covered over 20 miles and the temperature had soared to 100 degrees, I was happy with the 8:29 average, even though I'd originally been shooting for 8:15.  Still a night and day improvement over the first time I'd tried it and completely blown up at the end of July.  Silly me, I thought I could handle an easy 4 the next day and incorporate some tempo work into my 15-miler on Monday.  I quickly figured out that I needed LSD that day, forgot about pace, and let myself just enjoy the run.  (I even found the house key I'd dropped a couple weeks earlier!)  But I should have known better than to attempt two 15-mile runs (with a significant number of miles at or faster than goal pace) in 72 hours and taken note when my body said no thanks that Monday.  I didn't.

My other big clue was pain in my lower calf on my left leg.  That started with the Hottest Half at the end of August.  I'd experienced similar pain with my right leg during a race back in May, but that time, it subsided soon after.  This time, the tenderness kept lingering.  It wasn't completely debilitating, though, so initially I didn't pay much attention.  When I had a pain-free run a week ago Friday, I even thought maybe I was out of the woods and proceeded with a 20-miler that included tempo work last Sunday.  It started hurting again around mile 7, and I pressed on, charging uphill, determined to maintain my target pace.  I met up with my friend Pam at the halfway mark and kept pace for another 3 miles until the pain, fatigue, and rising temperatures finally started to slow me down.  I kept pushing through mile 15, and Pam was gracious enough to run/walk the rest of the way with me.  What followed was perhaps my most painful foam rolling session to date.  Bad sign.

I'd hoped that an ice bath, compression, and a massage on Monday would fix the problem, and it wasn't too excruciating during Tuesday morning's easy run.  But it hurt enough afterward that I figured out I needed to scratch my evening run and the 14-miler I had planned to, from, and on the trails for Wednesday.  I hated to lose the miles but considered the cost-benefit analysis and figured that in the grand scheme of things, I wouldn't fail to reach my goals because I cut those miles...but could fail to reach them if I pushed too hard, further delaying my recovery and potentially risking more serious injury.

Because I wasn't up and out the door before dawn on Wednesday, I got to sleep in...til 8 o'clock!!!  I can't remember the last time I did that.  It also afforded me some time for reflection.  As I made more of an effort to listen to my body this week, I was tuning in and noticing how I was feeling:  A little sniffly and just an occasional twinge of a sore throat, like I might be on the verge of getting sick.  Fatigued.  Emotional.  Demotivated.  What???  Anyone who knows me knows that it is totally uncharacteristic for me to be anything less than 110% enthusiastic about running.  But I was finally able to be honest with myself.  As excited as I am about Marine Corps and the 50K, there's a part of me that looks forward to not training 10-15 hours a week.  For the past week or so, I think I had been carrying that around inside like a dirty little secret.  It was masked by excitement as I contemplated races for 2014, but in the back of my mind, I found myself wondering how long I could take a break after the 50K without losing fitness...

Even though I didn't run on Wednesday, I noticed that I felt heavy and slow, and it occurred to me that some of it had nothing to do with my training.  I have maxed out my caseload at the office and recently started attending a weekly training class for personal, spiritual, and professional development.  That investment is already yielding dividends, but like the work that I do, it's emotionally demanding.  So all at once, I've got a heavy workload, heavy training load, and personal growth work that is emotionally heavy.  No wonder I've been feeling...well...heavy.

All of this had me a little worried heading into Thursday's speed session, which I'm glad I still opted to do.  The plan was 6 x Yasso 800's @ 3:40.  To my surprise, I averaged 3:35!  Credit it being a few degrees cooler, the new shoes (Type A5s that weigh just 5 oz!), the shot of caffeine I took beforehand, and/or the day of rest on Wednesday.  Maybe a little bit of all of the above.  But I don't care.  I'm still encouraged because a month ago only one of my 10 repeats was < 3:40 and this time, they all were!  I was relieved that I wasn't as heavy and slow as I felt and that I got through the workout without pain...

...but then I felt sore again after the fact.  I pulled on a compression sleeve under my dress pants and headed to the office. I got through the rest of the day on Thursday but didn't get home until after 8, and by that time I was completely spent. The day ended with me eating peanut butter by the spoonful straight from the jar.  Disappointed about the unnecessary calories, I initially asked myself, "How could this happen?" Then I realized that was the wrong question.  How could it NOT happen when I was physically and emotionally exhausted and all kinds of rungry after not eating enough during the day and not getting home and getting dinner until late?  I told myself that if my worst indulgence in such a state was a few spoons of peanut butter, I was actually doing way better than a lot of people, including my former self. 

Friday I woke up still feeling exhausted.  I hit the snooze button, which I hardly ever do.  When I finally did get up, I had to face facts: calf pain + fatigue + sniffles + loss of motivation and self-discipline = overtraining...or at least as dangerously close to it as I need to come.

They say if you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you should do is stop digging.  I could not find a single convincing argument that running the 6 miles I had planned on Friday would help me reach my goals and determined that, to the contrary, it would actually only set me further back from full recovery.  Ditto for the leg workout at the gym.  How was that supposed to help my calf heal or give me fresh legs for this weekend?  I decided to take a day of rest, and for the first time in so many months I can't remember, I even entertained the thought of taking 2 in a row [gasp!].

Saturday morning, I woke up before the alarm, felt better, and enjoyed some quiet time...but then went back to sleep for a short nap before heading to the office.  When I got home from work mid-afternoon, I opted for another nap (2.5 hours!) over watching the Aggie game.  While that turned out to be a very good call, the fact that I would rather sleep than watch a huge football game is also a sign that something is wrong with me!  After getting extra rest, I did a little bit of strength training and decided to go for a short easy run, just 4 miles of run/walk.  I could tell my calf still wasn't 100%, but it wasn't a hindrance.  I don't think the run set me back physically, and it did me a world of good to run happy.  My mind needed that one more than my body--and more than it needed another rest day.  Win.

I also figured out that if I rested today, I could do today's workout tomorrow and keep the every other day pattern to aid my recovery.  It's disappointing that I had to cut more than half my scheduled mileage this week, especially when I had already planned to take it easy next week in preparation for Saturday's race.  But I'm choosing to think of it as giving myself a monster 2-week taper for the 10K.  :)

On the upside, I still got one really good workout in this week, which was both a confidence booster and good prep for MCM.  I also set myself up for another good workout tomorrow, which I'll be able to tackle being closer to 100% than I was a week ago.  I got FOUR rest days this week and have found a way to shuffle things around to give myself three rest days for each of the next two weeks. I'm hoping to get in a couple of solid weeks of training after the 10K, and then it will be time for a legit 3-week taper leading up to the marathon.  I still have some key workouts planned over the next 6 weeks, and I remain determined to get in as many of those as I can without overdoing it.  I selected them because I believe they will help me reach my goal.  But I also recognize that I might have to substitute no miles for easy miles like I did this week, or if I'm not up to a particular workout, easy miles for hard miles at some point.  I'll take it day by day, see how I feel, and adapt as needed.  I'm more concerned with the big picture than individual runs, so I think I still have my priorities straight and my eye on the prize, so to speak.  I'm keenly aware that crossing the finish line begins with getting to the start line.

6 weeks and counting...

Reality Check

I waited to write about Hottest Half, and I'm glad I did because it's taken time for it to all sink in.  A week after the fact, I am able to be happy that I ran well, turned in my best half marathon yet, learned a few things that will make me a better, smarter runner, and accomplished most of my goals.  But last Sunday, those things were being overshadowed by the disappointment of not meeting one particular goal. 

In my running log, I make a practice of labeling each run with a word or phrase that sums it up.  The first word that came to mind for that race was: Bittersweet.  I was really upset about missing the sub-2 finish.  I researched other half marathons and toyed with the idea of giving it another shot before MCM but eventually decided I couldn't do so without compromising my training schedule for the big event--not to mention that another entry fee would be about half the cost of a pair of new shoes!  Since then, I've realized I have yet to turn in the finishing times I hoped for at any distance:

5K - I signed up for the Labor Day 5K at Rangers Ballpark last year, just to get my first race under my belt.  I was doing it with a girlfriend who said she would show me the ropes (like what to do with that chip thingy that goes on your shoe) and figured we would run it easy together.  On the drive over, she said to me, "I think you should run for time."  I was just over 30 minutes, which would have been my goal if I had known far enough in advance to set one.  :) 

I did run a 25:58 on a training run a couple of months ago, but I simply haven't raced another 5K, so my official time is still over 30.  Oh, well.  One of these days (like when I'm willing to pay to run for a few minutes for a lousy cotton t-shirt), maybe I'll fix that.  ;)

10K - I had hoped to run the Tour des Fleurs in under an hour last September, but it didn't happen.  I was sure I could get there by the American Heroes 10K in November, but that didn't happen either.  In a way, it was probably a good thing that I had been battling injury in the months prior and was therefore content to run pain-free, as I would have been even more upset if I really been running for time when the poorly marked course turned out to be over a mile long! 

As with the 5K, I've since broken the hour-mark in training but have yet to turn in an official time under an hour simply because I haven't raced any more at that distance.  Planning to fix that when I return to Tour des Fleurs in 3 weeks!

Half Marathon - I've now run four of these things and didn't really expect to break 2 hours at Cowtown or Heels & Hills.  Last February, it was just a someday maybe.  By May, it seemed like a goal that was in sight, and then disaster struck in June when I tried to go for it too soon. Technically, I have now covered 13.1 miles in less than 2 hours (possibly twice if somehow that Jog Log data was right), but again my official race time does not reflect that. 

As I think about it, I've never had a race that went perfectly according to plan.  (I didn't even have a plan for Too Hot to Handle 15K, thinking at least that way I wouldn't be disappointed, and then that backfired.)  The closest thing was Heels & Hills, and even that day I had a cramp.  Every other race, something has gone wrong.  Sometimes those were my mistakes (primarily going out too fast), but often they have been circumstances beyond my control, such as weather, a long course, or at my last race, equipment failure. 

Thinking about this has given me pause as I target a sub-4 finish for Marine Corps.  I have every reason to expect that I will be able to meet that goal based on conversion formulas suggesting that I'm already close enough that another 8 weeks of training (and a 30-degree temperature drop) should push me under the line.  But what if something goes wrong?  Or what if having 30,000 people in my way keeps me from running the fastest time of which I would otherwise be capable? 

I am not for a moment giving up on my goal, just beginning to prepare myself that if something happens, I could be disappointed.  So what can I do?

- Train as hard as I can without breaking myself.  This has been the goal from the beginning, and I want to be as strong, fast, and smart as I can be in order to give myself the very best chance of overcoming any and every obstacle on race day.

- Remember where I started.  My initial goal was to finish.  And to finish feeling fantastic.  So that I would want to do it again...which would give me as many chances as I need to hit whatever time goal I might have.  When I filled out the registration form in January, I tentatively put down a goal of 5 hours because my fastest 13.1 at that point was predicting a 5:28 marathon.  That was 7 months ago.  Now that's dropped to 4:09.  We've come a long way, baby!

- Remember what's important.  This journey has not just been about finishing a marathon.  It's been about finishing the Marine Corps Marathon, raising money for the USO, and honoring those who serve our country and sacrifice in order to defend our freedom and our way of life.  I am grateful to be making my first trip to our nation's capitol, to have a spot at this year's race, and to have 2 legs to run it on.  Regardless of what happens on October 27, I hope I can keep things in perspective.

Hottest Half - Race Recap

I had been looking forward to this race and went in with multiple goals.  Obviously, I wanted to run it as fast as I could, and there were several times/paces that would be significant to beat:

- Race PR from Heels & Hills - 2:04:55 (9:32)
- PR from Rainbow Run according to Polar - 2:01:57 (9:18)
- Sub-2 (9:09)
- PR from Rainbow Run according to Jog Log - 1:59:57 (9:09)
- McRun equivalent of 4:09 marathon (with 9 weeks to go) - 1:58:19 (9:01)
- 9-minute miles
- McRun equivalent of 4:00 marathon - 1:54:02 (8:42)
- McRun equivalent of 3:45 marathon (predicted by Yasso 800s) - 1:46:55 (8:09)

I also set a few goals that had nothing to do with time:

- Finish.
- Breathless.
- Knowing that I had left it all on the course.
- Average HR > 175

My plan was to start getting my HR up in the first mile and try to hold it in the upper 170s for miles 2-10, then go 180+ the rest of the way.  Based on past experience and data, this seemed like the best strategy to maximize performance without pushing myself into the danger zone and crashing.

I had a good warmup and felt ready to go.  My HR was in the 160s for the first mile, which I ran in 8:42.  In the 2nd mile, I turned my HR alert on to cue me if I was below 175.  It kept beeping at me, and I kept pushing...and ran mile 2 in 8:26.

Common sense should have told me something was wrong, that I was running too fast, and that I should slow down.  This was way faster than I expected my average pace to be based on the majority of my data, but I reasoned that maybe I was seeing the effect of a week's taper, and since the Yasso/McRun conversion suggested I might be able to average 8:09, I thought maybe it wasn't entirely crazy....

Until I finally noticed what my monitor said my HR actually was.  I ran mile 3 in 8:40, supposedly with an average HR of 113???  That average dropped to 99 for mile 4 and 74 for mile 5, despite running both around 8:52.  Clearly, I was getting bad data.  I was furious, since my whole race strategy and most objective non-time goal was based on this stupid device.  I took it off (no sense chaffing if you're not even going to get good data!) and put it in the pouch on my belt.  It continued to take readings, which initially were more accurate OFF my body!

I felt good, though, and continued to run well.  I found a couple of guys that were running my pace and tucked in behind them, matching them step for step until we got separated at the water stop.  The change in the bounce when crossing bridges felt super weird, and I couldn't believe they had us zig-zagging down ramps with railings on either side, but I pressed on.

During the 2nd half, my fast start and the climbing temps were catching up with me, and a couple of times I pulled alongside other runners just to keep me going.  The first guy and I never said a word, and I left him behind as soon as I realized he was going too slow for me.  The 2nd guy was about 6'6" and had super long legs.  I said something about just 5K to go, and he began to pull ahead of me as we started uphill.  I pushed myself to keep up...and kept going, right past him.  :)

Even from the first mile, I had been noticing a discrepancy between the mile markers and the distance on my Garmin.  Sure enough, it was a long course.  Thankfully, I had the presence of mind to hit the lap button as soon as I knew I'd run 13.1.  But I still had to run an extra third of a mile to the finish!

It was so nice to have my mom at the finish line.  She is a great assistant, and I'm super happy I'll have her with me at MCM!  It took me long enough to recover that I knew I had given my best effort, but it wasn't so bad that I was incapacitated the way I had been after Wounded Warrior (which I think was a relief to Mom since that was the last race she came to).  We waited around for the awards ceremony with my friend Pam (who took 2nd in her age group!) and her husband.  We also bumped into another friend from our group runs, and the tall guy I'd dropped with 3 miles to go came up to congratulate me on leaving him in the dust.  :)

Post-race, the data-crunching began...

My 13.1 time was 1:58:11 - right where I wanted to be for that 4:09 equivalent 9 weeks out.  Total race time = 2:00:55.  I was pissed that the long course had cost me an official sub-2 finishing time, but I still averaged 9-minute miles, so I was happy with my performance.  I'll never know for sure if I averaged HR > 175, but I definitely accomplished my goals of finishing breathless and knowing I'd left it all on the course.  Even though I missed the 2-hour mark, I felt much better about this race than Too Hot to Handle, when I hadn't had a firm goal and finished feeling like I didn't run hard enough.  In fact, based on the 13.1 time, I had met all of my time goals except to run the equivalent of a 4:00 marathon or less...which I hadn't really expected to do with it so hot anyway. Despite the long course, my official time was still a race PR and a personal PR (based on the earlier Polar time, which I believe was more accurate), so just about any way you slice it, this was my best half marathon to date.

I'm learning it is wise to accept (and perhaps expect) that there may be factors beyond one's control on race day, like temperatures in the 80's, a HR rate monitor giving bad data, or a long course.  My goal is to become strong enough to overcome those things and not cost myself any extra time because of a mistake like going out too fast.  Of the factors within my control, that's the only thing I would change about this race.  Being deceived by my HR monitor (and seduced by the Yasso/McRun conversion) cost me a negative split, and I'll never know if the difference had I run just a little smarter would have been enough to get me under 2 hours in spite of everything else....

Either way, I had a good race and learned things that will help me for MCM and beyond:

- Let the data speak.  Come up with a target pace based on the majority of your training data, and let that be your guide on race day.  Take conversions with a grain of salt; they're not as trustworthy as data from runs you've actually done. While taper and adrenaline will hopefully give you an edge on race day, the difference is more likely to be seconds (not a minute or more) off your pace.  Plan accordingly and run conservatively to start.  If something unprecedented or miraculous is going to happen, let it happen in the 2nd half of your race.  :)

- Listen to your body, not just your Garmin.